The Long War Journal: The Baghdad Security Operation Order of Battle: May 14, 2007

Written by Bill Roggio on May 14, 2007 12:45 PM to The Long War Journal

Available online at: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/05/the_baghdad_security_7.php

By Dj Elliott, CJ Radi and Bill Roggio

The past week in Iraq has been a mixed bag of political success coupled with several successful high profile attacks by al Qaeda. As the situation heats up in Diyala, al Qaeda conducted a highly successful assault on a U.S. Army team operating south of Baghdad.

The search is on for the 3 missing soldiers who are believed to have been captured after a complex assualt on a U.S. Army patrol on the outskirts of Mahmudiyah Saturday morning. Over 4,000 troops, along with aerial and satellite surveillance, and elements of the Anbar Salvation Council, are involved. Al Qaeda in Iraq's political front the Islamic State of Iraq has claimed it has captured the 3 soldiers, but has not offered any evidence. AL Qaeda in Iraq will make every effort to exploit the captive soldiers to both influence the American audience and to shore up its base of support in jihadi circles and beyond.

In Baghdad, there has been very little changes to the disposition of forces. The focus in the eastern zones of the city has been clearing Sadr City. Over 40 percent of the city was reported to hav ebeen cleared since the last update over a week ago. Inthewest, Iraqi and U.S. forces have moved forces into the Bayaa and Doura districts and initiated clearing operations after completing the Mansour district last week.

Diyala province remains the hotest and most dangerous region in Iraq. The tribes of Diyala, tired of al qaeda's attempts at imposing a Taliban like regime through its Islamic State of Iraq, are beginning to organize along the lines of tribes in Anbar province. Several tribes have banded together, formed the Diyala Awakening and vowed to battle al Qaeda. "Tribesman Sheikh Wameed al-Jabouri told al-Hayat that a number of tribes had signed a cooperation agreement to undertake this mission and to bring the city [of Baqubah back to how 'it used to be,'" notes Deutsche Presse-Agentur. "The agreement could be considered "a national charter" that proves their rejection of the actions of the terrorist groups, al-Jabouri said." The tribes have created the Diyala Awakening.

This development comes as U.S. forces are finishing their surge and preparing to retake the province from al Qaeda. Maj. Gen. Benjamin Mixon, the Commander of Multnational Division North and the 25th Infantry Division, briefed on Diyala late last week and stated "I do not have enough soldiers right now in Diyala province to get that security situation moving... We have plans to put additional forces in that area."

"In Diyala province, we are working in a combined effort with Iraqi Security Forces to achieve tactical parity," said Maj. Gen. Mixon. "The tactical situation there is very difficult, and the fight is ongoing. Across MND North, we'll continue to work to improve Iraqi Security Forces, and they will become more capable, and we will work with the police units until they are fully established and capable of providing for their own security."

Multinational Forces moved a 700 man Stryker battalion to Baqubah n March, and have just deployed an additional Stryker Brigade - the 4th Brigade of the 2nd Infantry Division into Diyala. "The most recent unit to have arrived up there is the 4th brigade 2nd infantry division, which is comprised of two Stryker battalions and one artillery battalion," Major General William Caldwell said in a recent press briefing. The Iraqi government has stated it is deploying an unspecified number of Iraqi Army and police to Diyala.

Al Qaeda in Iraq is continuing its suicide bombing campaign in an effort to break both the Iraqi Security Forces and the will of the American people. Al Qaeda was able to conduct eight major suicide attacks nationwide. Three occurred inside Baghdad. A suicide car bomber struck the near the Sadriyah market, killing 7 and wounding over 40. This market has been the site of several mass casualty attacks. In southern Baghdad, two major brigdes were hit with suicide car bombs, while another bridge was struck near Taji. Al Qaeda in Iraq attacked two bridges inside Baghdad in April, and destroyed one of them.

Suicide car bombs remain al Qaeda's most effective weapon. South of Baghdad in Kufa, the sister city of Karbala, al Qaeda struck with a suicide car bomb near a market, killing 16 and wounding another 70. In the Kurdish regions up north, al Qaeda conducted two major suicide car bomb attacks. The first occurred in the city of Irbil. Sixteen were killed and over 70 wounded after a suicide truck bomber detonated outside the regional Interior Ministry. Al Qaeda claimed credit through its proxy Islamic State of Iraq. The second suicide car bombing occurred the local offices of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Makhmur, which killed at least 50 and wounded over 70. Early last week, al Qaeda Tconducted a dual suicide car bomb attack in Ramadi, which killed 20 and wounding scores more.

On the political front, several significant developments have occurred over the past week. SCIRI, one of the most dominant Shia political parties has made the move to distance itself from Iran, while progress has been made on the Sunni reconciliation front.

The Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), the largest Shia political party, has changed its name and shifted its center of political and religious support from the Qom school of thought, led by the Iranian Ayatollah in Iran, to the Najaf school of thought, led by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. This would "mark a shift from SCIRI's current platform, which says the group gets its guidance from the religious establishment of Welayat al Faqih, led by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran," Reuters reported on Friday.

SCIRI has renamed itself the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, dropping the "Revolution" from the name. While the source stated the name change was due to Saddam's overthrow, the change is far more significant. The term revolution is closely associated with Ayatollah Khomeini's rise to power in 1979 and the radical change Khomeini introduced in Shia politics.

Also, on the Sunni side of the political equation, Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi has backed down from a threat to withdrawal from the Iraqi government. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has offered to give a greater role to Sunnis in securing their regions. "One Sunni Arab politician, Omar Abdul-Sattar, said 11,000 volunteers from Sunni areas west of the capital have been waiting for months to hear news about their applications to join the army," the Associated Press reported.

The political progress came as the Sadrist bloc in Parliament pulled off a masterful anti American propaganda stunt. The Sadrists pushed a draft of a non-binding resolution through the parliament, called for "a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign troops and [demands] a freeze on the number of foreign troops already in the country." The parliament would also have had the authority to approve the UN mission in Iraq, which expires at the end of 2007. The Sadr aide claimed to have 144 of the 275 parliamentarians supporting the bill.

According to Alertnet, the bill is actually a "petition, which is nonbinding," and must be presented to speaker. "Under Iraqi law, the speaker must present a resolution that's called for by a majority of lawmakers, but there are significant loopholes and what will happen next is unclear."

But, the Kurdish block backed the legislation but "only on the condition that the withdrawal timetable be linked to a schedule for training and equipping Iraq’s security forces." The Sadrists didn't include this requirement, prompting the Kurdish block to refer to the legislation as "deception." Expect the bill to be defeated when it comes to the full vote in parliament, as prior versions have been.

As Muqtada al Sadr's political party plays games in parliament, David Satterfield, the senior adviser to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Iraq, stated that the U.S. is certain Sadr is currently in Iran. "We know he's out of the country, we don't think," Mr. Satterfield told the Associated Press. "He's in Iran, which is where he has been since mid-January."

Multinational Forces Iraq and Iraqi Security Forces continue to chip away at Mahdi Army cells that are working with Iran. Over the past week, Coalition and Iraqi forces broke up five of the deadly Explosively Formed Penetrator (EFP) cells inside Sadr City. Thirteen members of the EFP cells were killed and 23 captured during the series of raids against "members of a secret cell terrorist network known for facilitating the transport of weapons and explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, from Iran to Iraq, as well as bringing militants from Iraq to Iran for terrorist training."

The Baghdad Secuirty Plan has just completed its third month. Sectarian violence continues to remain at a 0ne year low, while car bombs have become al Qaeda's most effective weapon in the fight for Iraq. The U.S. still has another brigade to add to the fight, and Diyala looms on the horizon as Anbar has become a Coalition success story. The Iraqi political progress has been encouraging, despite falling short of expectations, while al Qaeda has proven t be adept in its ability to adjust its tactics to the security plan. General Petraeus has stated it won't be until September until success and failure can be weighed. May is far too soon to pass judgment on the Baghdad Security Plan.