The Long War Journal: The New Iraq Strategy

Written by Bill Roggio on January 10, 2007 8:12 PM to The Long War Journal

Available online at: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/01/the_new_iraq_strateg.php

President Bush will announce his new security plan within the hour. The White House has made a fact sheet available online, as well as a Strategic Overview [PDF] of new Iraq plan. This evening I participated in a conference call with White House Press Secretary Tony Snow and Brett McGurk, the Director for Iraq on the National Security Council. The fact sheet and Strategic Overview provide summaries of the Iraq strategy, but I want to highlight a few of the important items in the plan.

1) Establishing security in Baghdad is paramount, along with severing the rat lines from Syria and Iran. To achieve security in Baghdad, 17,500 U.S. troops will partner with an additional 20,000 Iraqi troops and police (18 brigades total). This is a return to the successful partnering program that was used in Anbar province and elsewhere prior to turning over more control to Iraqi units. To achieve this, the U.S. is sending in 5 additional Army brigades. Three brigades are having their deployment schedule accelerated. Anbar province will receive 4,000 additional Marines. This is not enough force to root out al Qaeda strongholds in Ramadi, according to military sources I have spoken to.

2) The plan is clear that the Iraqi government must take responsibility for security, and commit to ending the actions and dismantling the death squads and militias (read Sadr). Prime Minister Maliki has just fired a warning shot across the bow of the Mahdi Army. "Prime Minister al-Maliki has told everyone that there will be no escape from attack. The government has told the Sadrists (the political movement that supports the Mahdi Army), if we want to build a state we have no other choice but to attack armed groups," a senior Shiite legislator and close al-Maliki.

3) The Rules of Engagement (ROE) will be modified to remove restrictions on hunting terrorists, death squads and militias. Iraqi political interference will not be tolerated. It is not clear if this means the end of the 'catch & release' program, where known insurgents are freed do to the current flaws in the legal system.

4) The Iraqi Army will be expanded (this isn't new news) “from 10 to 13 Army divisions, 36 to 41 Army Brigades, and 112 to 132 Army Battalions.” The Iraqi military will form a National Operations Center, National Counterterrorism Force, and National Strike Force. Police reform is a priority.

5) The new strategy emphasizes getting “all elements of the national power” involved in Iraq. State, USAID, Commerce and other agencies will play a larger role in Iraq. Provincial Reconstruction Teams will be embedded within each Brigade Combat Team. The numbe rof PRTs will double. The number of State employees outside of the Green Zone will increase from 100 to 400. Bureaucratic snags to get personnel deployed will be lifted Mr. Snow indicated the department have into the plan.

6) The Military and Police Transition Team program will continue, and will be expanded. The plan is not taking a blanket approach by repartnering all units with U.S. forces. This allows units that are developing well (as they are in Fallujah) to continue to develop on their own.

7) The Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP) will be reinstated, and $350 million dollars will be allocated. This will place money in the hands of the military combatant commanders to spend money in their Area of Operations as they see fit. CERP is extremely popular among military leaders, and has been described as an effective tool in working the local populations.

8) The U.S. Will not negotiate with Iran and Syria on Iraq, as recommended by the Baker Hamilton Commission. Iran is being called to account for its interference in internal Iraqi affairs.

9) Reconciliation is still on the table for the non-jihadist Sunni insurgents. This is crucial to create space to split Sunni insurgens from al Qaeda and its rump Islamic State of Iraq.