Iraq: Ramping Up or Drawing Down Forces, and the Baker Report
Marines deploy a MEU to Anbar, a Baker report possibility
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| Iraq. Click map to view. |
After the Democrats seized the House and Senate during the U.S. midterm election, the concern has been how the change in Congressional leadership would impact Iraqi policy. Would the Democrats demand an immediate withdrawal, leaving the nascent Iraqi government and military to fend off al Qaeda, the Sunni insurgency and Sadr's Shiite death squads? Senator Carl Levin, who is in line to head the Arms Services Committee, has called for “a phased withdrawal that would begin in four to six months.” Gen. John Abizaid, the commander of U.S. Central Command, warned that “Specific timetables limit... flexibility” in dealing with the political and military problems in Iraq.
Much of the speculation on how the U.S. would proceed in Iraq has hinged on the Baker-Hamilton Commission Report. Since the election, General Pete Pace, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has initiated a policy review on Iraq, and President Bush has called for an internal review of Iraq policy within the administration. General Pace's report will be difficult to ignore politically, and may level out some of the worst fears from the Baker report.
Early reports indicated the Baker report would recommend setting benchmarks and timetables on the Iraqi government, a phased withdrawal accompanied by negotiations with Iran and Syria. The latest speculation comes from the Guardian which states the commission will recommend a four point plan, which includes a troop increase of about 20,000 (Senator John McCain has called for an additional 50,000 troops). The Guardian summarizes the recommendations as follows:
· Increase US troop levels by up to 20,000 to secure Baghdad and allow redeployments elsewhere in Iraq· Focus on regional cooperation with international conference and/or direct diplomatic involvement of countries such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia
· Revive reconciliation process between Sunni, Shia and others
· Increased resources from Congress to fund training and equipment of Iraqi Security Forces
Perhaps by coincidence, General Abizaid announced the deployment of the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit to Anbar province. This is an unplanned, additional deployment to the 150,000 plus troops in the Iraqi theater. “A MEU typically has about 2,200 Marines split into four elements: a battalion landing group; an air wing with Harrier jump jets, Cobra helicopters, and other aircraft; a Marine Logistics Group; and a command element,” notes Stars and Stripes.
While the Military refuses to name where the 15th MEU will deploy in Anbar, there should be no doubt its destination is Ramadi. Ramadi continues to be the hotspot in Anbar province. The failure to clear and hold Ramadi during the 'Anbar Campaign' in the fall of 2005 continues to haunt the Iraqi government and the U.S. military. Portions of the city are contested, and neighborhoods remain sanctuaries for al Qaeda.
In Baghdad, the Iraqi police remain a serious impediment to securing the city. Elements of the Baghdad police force have been infiltrated by Sadr's Mahdi Army, and are either participating in the sectarian murders or turning a blind eye. An American military intelligence source recommends disbanding the Baghdad police and declaring martial law, bringing in the Iraqi Army along with U.S. forces to secure the city. This would inevitably lead to a confrontation with Sadr and the Mahdi Army as he will suffer a loss in power.
As we noted days after the election, the midterm election results and the Baker report are likely to influence the direction of U.S. policy in Iraq, but serious question still exist as to how much the policy will change. The U.S. has been planning for a drawdown this year, and working to increase the number of embedded trainers for Iraqi Army and police, while the Iraqi Army is raising three additional divisions and overmanning their existing combat formations. The American public, while unhappy with the current direction in Iraq, are still looking for a positive solution. The Democratic victories in the House and Senate were not won by the antiwar wing of the party, but the “Blue Dogs,” or conservative Democrats.
Meanwhile, the planning for troop deployments in Iraq continues. The Department of Defense released a partial list of the units for the next round of deployments. A division headquarters, five combat brigades (about 20,000 troops) and “approximately 27,000 active duty and 10,000 reserve component troops in combat support and combat service support units smaller than brigade-size elements” are slated to deploy to Iraq early next year.
One thing is clear: American's enemies perceive our wavering on Iraq as vindication. Abu Ayyub al-Masri, al Qaeda's commander in Iraq, released a tape just days after the election declaring victory in Iraq. “The victory day has come faster than we expected... Here is the Islamic nation in Iraq victorious against the tyrant. The enemy is incapable of fighting on and has no choice but to run away,” said al-Masri. Osama bin Laden has referred to America as a paper tiger after the Somalia intervention in the early 1990s.
“After leaving Afghanistan, the Muslim fighters headed for Somalia and prepared for a long battle, thinking that the Americans were like the Russians,. The youth were surprised at the low morale of the American soldiers and realized more than before that the American soldier was a paper tiger and after a few blows ran in defeat. And America forgot all the hoopla and media propaganda ... about being the world leader and the leader of the New World Order, and after a few blows they forgot about this title and left, dragging their corpses and their shameful defeat.”A precipitous withdrawal from Iraq would hand al Qaeda a victory it has not earned, and only embolden al Qaeda to strike America and her allies worldwide. U.S. policymaker must must keep this in mind when deciding how to proceed forward with Iraq.
