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Aftermath of a bombing in Kabul on July 5, 2006. Images courtesy of Walt Gaffney. Click photo to view gallery. |
The string of four bombings over two days in Kabul, Afghanistan, have raised the tension level in the city and stoked media speculation of a Taliban resurgence in the capital. On July 4, two roadside bombs were detonated; one in front of the Ministry of Justice, another several hundred meters from President Hamid Karzai’s palace. Eleven were wounded in the attacks. On July 5, two more bombs were detonated, one near the “Pigeon Mosque,” about 500 meters west of the Ministry of Communications, another “essentially in the middle of nowhere” in Northern Kabul, according to a contact in Afghanistan. The casualties range from 3 to 47. One person was killed, and it appears he was one of the bombers that attempted to use a pushcart to deliver the bomb. The Taliban has claimed responsibility for the attack, and al Qaeda claims to be in possession of 26 more bombs in the city.
But the facts on the ground indicate the bombing may not be al Qaeda or Taliban related, but the work of political opponents to the Karzai government, much like the riots in Kabul at the end of May. Walt Gaffney, a representative from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), was on the scene of both bombing sites. Tim Lynch, the country manager for World Security Initiatives, a contracting firm, describes Walt’s experience at the blast site:
Walt noted that as soon as the BBC rolled up (which was right behind him at both sites) an older man would step out of the crowd and start on an anti-Karzai rant. It would appear that the current rash of IED’s is aimed at the locals and probably designed to put more pressure on Karzai – who is widely considered to be a weak and thus vulnerable leader. Walt also said the on-scene impromptu local color commentators seemed… disciplined… sticking to a set of talking points. If true, that represents a pretty sophisticated IED/media campaign.
Mr. Lynch also notes the bombs were crude, and likely designed to avoid deaths:
All three of these devices were very small – bigger than a frag [fragmentation grenade] but smaller than a 105 [105 mm artillery shell]. The pushcart was probably to allow for an escape – suicide bombers are rare here and normally outsiders. An outsider (even an unknown Afghani) with a pushcart would find it impossible to travel far with it without getting stopped by ANP [Afghan National Police] who (when they want) will stop and search every male they don’t recognize in their respective neighborhoods. That is probably why the Pushcart attack took place in the outskirts… There is a huge marketplace out there where farmers from all over the country bring produce and strangers can move about in relative anonymity. He could have never got that cart into downtown Kabul today as the police were all stirred up by the attack on their headquarters yesterday.
Whoever is lighting these things off is trying to avoid too much collateral damage. The AGE [Anti-Government Elements] know that if they kill too many Afghans, a blood feud is the certain result if they are unmasked. Those get ugly in this country when multiple families feel compelled to settle up. We have never seen an Iraqi style IED here and doubt we will. They just won’t take the risks of using that much explosive and killing that many civilians.
The Taliban and al Qaeda are not known for holding back firepower to limit casualties. Walt Gaffney explains the complexities of sorting out who initiates much of the violence in Afghanistan.
There is a reason that we, in theater, call these incidents, “AGE”, anti-government elements because it is damn hard determining who is whom, even after you’ve been in an engagement with them. There are so many competing and conflicting elements here that it is sometimes impossible to figure it out. Afghan politics makes the Italian parliament look like a cohesive group. Hig in the east/north east, Khan in the west, Atta/Dostum in the north, Talibs in the south/south east, different tribal interests across the entire country, blood feuds, Hajiks, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Pashtuns (different in different parts of the country), Iranian influence, Pakistani influence, Indian influence, American/Coalition…it goes on and on.
Media reports are often quick to credit the Taliban for attacks they may have played no part in and the Taliban gladly will take credit for these attacks. This nicely augments the Taliban’s media campaign as it builds their stature in the eyes of the international community.
