Safe Havens & Iraq

The debate over Iraq being a safe haven and training ground, or a magnet and killing ground for terrorists has been ongoing since the inception of al Qaeda’s terrorist attacks in the summer of 2003. The reality is there is merit to both arguments. al Qaeda has managed to establish enclaves for small periods of time, particularly in Anbar province during 2005, and has been able to recruit and train fighters from inside and outside the country. Senior al Qaeda operatives, some with ten to fifteen years of experience in al Qaeda’s ranks, have been killed or captured in Iraq. What is often not factored into the argument is how significant elements of the Sunni population have begun to turn on al Qaeda, entering the political process and joining the security forces.

Two recent findings help shed light on the status of al Qaeda in Iraq: the U.S. Department of State’s 2005 Country Reports on Terrorism, and the continuing analysis of al Qaeda documents released from the Harmony database at West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center.

The 2005 Country Reports on Terrorism, chapter 3, Terrorist Safe Havens (PDF), states “Iraq is not currently a terrorist safe haven, but terrorists, including Sunni groups like al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI), Ansar al-Islam (AI), and Ansar al-Sunna (AS), as well as Shia extremists and other groups, view Iraq as a potential safe haven and are attempting to make it a reality.” While al Qaeda declared formation of the Islamic Republics of Qaim and Haditha throughout 2005, their command of these towns was short lived (if at all), and the Iraqi and Coalition push through the Euphrates River Valley over the course of the summer and fall of 2005 destroyed al Qaeda’s short term goal of establishing rump Islamic Caliphates in the region. The report goes on to note al Qaeda is attempting to disrupt the political process and working to destroy the nation’s infrastructure. Iran and Syria are implicated in facilitating al Qaeda and the Iraqi insurgency, and in Chapter 6 (PDF) and they are again listed as State Sponsors or Terror.

The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point looks at newly released al Qaeda communiques from the Harmony database. The final analysis concludes (PDF) “al-Qa`ida operational commanders [in Iraq] are increasingly vexed by the continued loss of popular support, which they attribute to the willingness of Sunni tribal leaders and politicians to participate in the political process.” The report continues:

One of these letters, written by an unknown commander in Zarqawi’s organization, describes the problems that local community leaders have caused for al-Qa`ida, particularly in al-Anbar province. By supporting local elections, collaborating with American military officials, and encouraging young Iraqi men to join police and security forces, Sunni politicians and tribal sheikhs have successfully steered thousands of Iraqis away from the jihadi message and toward the participation in the political process. The author, therefore, advocates the assassination of these figures.

In the words of the ‘unknown commander’ (from the letter titled “Al Qa’ida in Iraq Situation Report” – PDF):

So this is the reality we’re living in al-Anbar in general, and Ramadi in particular, that is the head Sheiks of some tribes, and symbols of the Islamic Party, sat with the Americans in Jordan, and other places, to fight terrorism and its people. The Sheiks started teaching people about these ideas, this conspiracy is led by two sides, the first is the heads of the tribes, the second is the leaders of the Islamic Party and mosques speakers, so they announced their war on the Mujahidin, it increased during the elections for the new constitution, their danger was so great, that hundreds of people volunteered in the police and the army, and thousands of people participated in the elections, renouncing their religion, and listenning to the erratics. After we took a look at the situation, we found that the best solutions to stop thousands of people from renouncing their religion, is to cut the heads of the Sheiks of infidelity and erratic.

The “Al Qa’ida in Iraq Situation Report” also discloses an interesting piece of information about the operational methods of the terrorist group. al Qaeda is sowing distrust among the population by posing as government security forces. The unknown commander gives a detailed description of the murder of sheikh Nasr al-Fahdawi of the AlbuFahd tribe:

…the brothers raided his [Sheik Nasr al-Fahdawi, Sheik of AlbuFahd tribe] house in the middle of the night wearing the national guards uniform and driving similar cars, they took him and killed him thank god. The next morning his households and neighbors started talking to the tribe saying it was the national guards, they added that they heard some of them speaking English, meaning that the Americans are the ones who took Abu Dhari (Sheik Nasr al-Fahdawi), no one claimed responsibility for his killing, thank god.

The likelihood is this is a common tactic used by both al Qaeda and the domestic Iraqi insurgency. Army and police uniforms, badges and armbands have been discovered in numerous raids of enemy safe houses.

Al-Qaeda’s indiscriminate use of violence and assassinations against the Iraqi people have caused elements of the Sunni insurgency to form the Anbar Revenge Brigade, designed to hunt al Qaeda members in the province. The campaign of targeted assassinations and intimidation has yet to cause the Sunnis to quit the political process. The first batch of Sunni recruits from Anbar have completed their five week basic training and are returning to Anbar to man the Iraqi Army. According to Reuters, “Iraq’s president [Jalal Talabani] said on Sunday he and U.S. officials had met with insurgents and that a deal with some groups to end violence could be reached.” U.S. and Iraqi forces report over 100 insurgents have been killed in Ramadi over the past week, the heart of the Sunni insurgency in Anbar province. “”The Iraqi army is conducting aggressive operations here based on human intelligence from the people of Ramadi themselves,” according to Colonel John Gronski, commander of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team which operates in the city.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

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  • Safe Havens & Iraq

    Courtesy of the Counterterrorism Blog:
    By Bill Roggio
    The debate over Iraq being a safe haven and training ground, or a magnet and killing ground for terrorists has been ongoing since the inception of al-Qaeda’s terrorist attacks in the summer…

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