Exit Sword, Enter Scimitar
As London recovers from the attack on its transportation system, Coalition forces continue on the offensive in Iraq's Anbar province. Operation Sword was directed at the city of Hit, which lies west of Fallujah along the Euphrates river, has completed. Unlike some recent search & destroy operations in the Anbar province, Sword has left an Iraqi force in garrison.
Hit joins the major cities of Ramadi, Habbaniyah and Fallujah in having persistent presence of Iraqi Security Forces. Hit is now the Al Anbar city furthest west to maintain a fully-trained ISF presence. There are now approximately 1,500 more trained Iraqi soldiers working in Al Anbar than there were at the conclusion of Operation Matador on May 7.
This appears to be a carefully thought out plan to slowly create a presence of Iraqi Army units in the region. The Iraqi government is positioning Iraqi forces to secure cities along the Euphrates ratline, creating a nucleus of Army units familiar with the region that can further seed the future Iraqi Army units to follow in their path.
The newest operation is Scimitar and is being conducted in the town of Zaidan about 20 miles southeast of Fallujah. Like previous operations in Anbar, Scimitar is a battalion sized exercise conducted with Iraqi forces.
"The military said it did not announce the offensive earlier because commanders did not want to tip off insurgents that a major operation had begun. The campaign -- named after a curved Asian sword -- includes 500 Marines from the 3rd Reconnaissance Battalion, Regimental Combat Team-8, stationed in Okinawa, Japan, the military said. About 100 Iraqi soldiers were supporting the operation, which is designed to disrupt insurgent activity in the Anbar province."
The Coalition retains the ability to conduct multiple battalion sized operations indefinitely indicating a reserve forces is being built. This strength is likely attributed to the rise of the Iraqi Army, which is increasing its capability to operate in hostile locations. The Coalition is taking the fight to the heart of the insurgency - Western Iraq.
Zarqawi has recognized the threat, and has declared the Iraqi Army to be the real enemy. In a recent communiqué, he has stated as such, and is attempting to chide other insurgent groups to tow the line of al Qaeda in Iraq. He is essentially challenging domestic Iraqi insurgents who would rather attack the Americans to kill their own Iraqi brothers. Zarqawi also alludes alludes to a rift within the insurgent groups, as well as a dearth in support among the ummah.
Some say that the resistance is divided into two groups - an honourable resistance that fights the non-believer-occupier and a dishonourable resistance that fights Iraqis We announce that the Iraqi army is an army of apostates and mercenaries that has allied itself with the Crusaders and came to destroy Islam and fight Muslims. We will fight it Some want us to end our jihad in Iraq God has ordered us to fight the non-believers... We think that the nation is committing a sin by failing to support the mujahidin.
The question remains is whether the Iraqi insurgents not inclined to kill their own countrymen will also be treated as apostates by Zarqawi's terrorists. Al Qaeda is not known for its tolerance, understanding or acceptance of dissent. Things will get mighty interesting Zarqawi becomes frustrated and treats the insurgents who refuse to conduct attacks on the Iraqi Army as unbelievers.
Kudos
Hat tip to reader and friend Marlin for the links provided in this post. Marlin regularly beats me to the punch and forwards me links on Iraq before I get a chance to look at the news, making my job easy. Many thanks.
READER COMMENTS: "Exit Sword, Enter Scimitar"
Posted by leaddog2 at July 9, 2005 4:23 PM ET:
Has anyone noticed that fewer and fewer Americans are needed in each subsequent mop-up action?
Posted by ricksamerican at July 9, 2005 4:58 PM ET:
bq. "We think that the nation is committing a sin by failing to support the mujahidin."
Says it all, doesn't it Bill? I know that's why you put it in bold.
Now if we could only get it on the front page of the NYT!
Keep up the great work.
Ricks
Posted by bill at July 9, 2005 7:27 PM ET:
"the military did not announce the offensive" wtf is going on;lets all tell them that we are comming after you; well doh! wonder whose brain fart it was to do that? its called war-not an afternoon tea party. oorah! and semper fi.
Posted by Justin Capone at July 9, 2005 9:20 PM ET:
Bill I was wondering if you could tell me what you make of this statement by Allawi. Is he just getting ready for the next election (and trying to show he isn't a US stooge) or is this his way to warn Sunnis and Shia to see what they are moving toward and show them why they should come together?
------------------------------------------------
Allawi: this is the start of civil war
IRAQ'S former interim prime minister Iyad Allawi has warned that his country is facing civil war and has predicted dire consequences for Europe and America as well as the Middle East if the crisis is not resolved.
"The problem is that the Americans have no vision and no clear policy on how to go about in Iraq,"¯ said Allawi, a long-time ally of Washington.
In an interview with The Sunday Times last week as he visited Amman, the Jordanian capital, he said: "The policy should be of building national unity in Iraq. Without this we will most certainly slip into a civil war. We are practically in stage one of a civil war as we speak."¯
Allawi, a secular Shi'ite, said that Iraq had collapsed as a state and needed to be rebuilt. The only way forward, he said, was through "national unity, the building of institutions, the economy and a firm but peaceful foreign relation policy"¯. Unless these criteria were satisfied, "the country will deteriorate"¯.
Tension has increased in the past two weeks following the return of Abu Musab al- Zarqawi, the Jordanian-born head of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Zarqawi left the country in May to seek medical treatment for a chest wound suffered in an American airstrike, but has now recovered sufficiently to resume his activities.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1687910,00.html
Posted by Don Cox at July 10, 2005 2:47 AM ET:
Allawi's remarks seem to me to be about the question of how independent the federal states of Iraq should be. He is arguing for a strong central government, as against the Kurds having near independence. Kirkuk and the oil there are the key problems.
Posted by the english guy at July 10, 2005 6:26 AM ET:
Thanks for the article, very thoughtful. Building a centralized government (again) in Iraq, and ignoring the identities of disparate regions and peoples inside the nation, is only going to cause more problems down the line. Is the Iraqi National Army going to be used for the same purposes Saddam used them for? To "mop-up" Kurdish insurgencies when the Allies leave?
Posted by Bill Roggio at July 10, 2005 6:56 AM ET:
And you know that how, the english guy? You are assuming the centeralized government being build is on the mirror image of Saddam's, and there's the rub.
Posted by starling at July 10, 2005 8:22 AM ET:
Bill,
came across a story on Drudge this morning
stating that the US and UK are planning a rapid withdrawl of troops from Iraq. I wonder if you put any stake in these claims. I, for one, am skeptical but also recognize that is a tremendous amount that I do not know about the GWOT.
Also, I wonder if it is possible that the Iraqi troops are far better trained than the US military has let on and that the former are more capable, both militarily and culturally, to take on what remains of the Iraqi "insurgency". In particular, I wonder if they will be able to take actions of a kind that an outside force like the US would be roundly criticized for.
Posted by Bill Roggio at July 10, 2005 8:47 AM ET:
Starling,
Absolutely absurd assertion posited at Drudge.
I would say the training of the Iraqi troops is about where it is being reported (without the negative spin, that is).
Posted by Soldier's Dad at July 10, 2005 11:00 AM ET:
Bill,
"Drudge Report"
IMHO the 66,000 number is a bit agressive, however, a little simple math and a couple of assumptions would indicate that some troops reductions are coming.
.
Assumptions - TF Baghdhad
Divided into 6 battle spaces, each battle space requires a brigade.
2 of the 6 battle spaces are currently owned by the Iraqi Army Brigades, probably requiring a US Battalion as a QRF. 3rd ID commander has stated that all 6 battle spaces will be owned by Iraq Army by October. Assuming 2 steps forward, 1 step back, assume 4 battle spaces by October 2005, 6 battle spaces by April 2006.
That would indicate 6 battalions for TF Baghdad, basically 1 1/2 Brigades - call it 2 for good measure.
TF Liberty - currently 4 brigades, 1 each for Diyala,Salladin and Tamin provinces. Plus 1 patrolling the Iranian border. Assume Tamim province drops to a battalion and transfers to TF Freedom, Diyala province drops to a battalion and transfers to TF Baghdad. Leave 1 Brigade for Salladin and 1 Brigade for the Iranian border.
No sense having 2 division headquarters, TF Liberty and TF Baghdad merge.
TF Freedom - Currently 2 brigades - stays the same (picks up Tamin province)
Marines in Al Anbar - 4 brigades, stays the same.
Posted by Bill Roggio at July 10, 2005 12:33 PM ET:
SD,
No doubt, but Drudge's immediate withdrawal, especially after London is out there
4 Brigades in Anbar? Are you sure that isn't 4 battalions? If you have a breakdown I'd love to see it (email it to me if you do not want to post online).
Posted by bill W at July 10, 2005 3:08 PM ET:
If you read the story that Drudge linked to, it was an absurd headline to put on the article. Basically, both the British & US are working out different scenarios, one of them being able to withdraw forces starting in Spring 2006. But, as they have said all along - that won't happen unless the conditions on the ground warrant it. There is nothing about a "secret plan to withdraw forces in a hurry".
Posted by Soldier's Dad at July 10, 2005 6:31 PM ET:
Bill,
Al Anbar - 2nd Bridage, 2nd Infantry Division + 2 Marine regiments + Air + Engineers. Maybe 3+ Brigades. Lot of real estate in Al Anbar.
Posted by Mark Buehner at July 11, 2005 9:07 AM ET:
The pace of offensive operations has increased dramatically in the last few months. The reason being that thousands of US troops have been relieved of garrison duty around Baghdad by IA forces, as well as additional IA forces coming to battle themselves. That is remarkably important news, and the pace will continue to increase as more and more Iraqi forces come online.
Posted by john at July 12, 2005 4:52 AM ET:
nice blog. i enjoyed this.keep it up.