The Long War Journal: Siding with Syria

Written by Bill Roggio on March 7, 2005 11:54 AM to The Long War Journal

Available online at: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2005/03/siding_with_syr.php

"He said he was going to withdraw the troops to the Bekaa - since when is the Bekaa Syrian territory?"

Edouard Ghanem, a demonstrator with the Free Patriotic Movement.

After three weeks of silence following the murder of Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Hariri, Hezbollah has chosen to side with Syria in resisting the end of the Syrian occupation of Lebanon. Hezbullah’s Secretary General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, has called for pro-Syrian demonstration to resist “foreign intervention that runs contrary to freedom, sovereignty and independence”, as well as “denounce the Resolution 1559, to show thanks, loyalty and appreciation to the Syrian leadership, people and army for its achievements in Lebanon.” Obviously Nasrallah does not see the irony in his statements, as Syria is the foreign force impeding Lebanon’s “freedom, sovereignty and independence”.

Hezbollah’s backing of Syria certainly complicates matters in Lebanon, and raises the prospects that violence between pro and anti Syrian forces inside Lebanon will take place, as Hezbollah is a well armed, well trained and experienced terrorist group capable and willing to use violence to meet its political and military goals. The Syrian opposition had hoped to gain the support of Hezbollah, and it was believed Hezbollah would disarm and enter Lebanese politics as a strictly political organization. That misplaced hope ignored the goals of Hezbollah, which includes assisting Palestinian terrorists, advocating and fighting for the destruction of Israel and acting as Syia's and Iran’s proxy.

Implications of Supporting the Syrian Occupation

Hezbollah’s declared support of the Syrian occupation speaks volumes about their perception of the situation. If Hezbollah believed there was little threat of a Syrian withdrawal, the wise option would have been to remain outside of the fray so as not to lose the support of the Lebanese opposition. Declaring open support for the Syrian occupation indicates Hezbollah is threatened by the departure of its Syria sponsor and the likelihood of a Syrian withdrawal is real. Active support of Syria is an attempt to stop the bleeding and prop up Syria within Lebanon.

Siding with Syria will have its costs. This makes Hezbollah a willing participant in the foreign occupation, and will decrease the popularity of the group within the anti-Syrian opposition. History is not kind to those who betray their country; the Quislings often meet a gruesome fate.

Nasrallah has signaled that the existence of Hezbollah is not merely to serve as a Lebanese political party. The decision to support Syria is a calculated attempt to maintain itself as a military/terrorist organization; "The resistance will not give up its arms because Lebanon needs the resistance to defend it even if I am optimistic that Israel will soon withdraw from the Shebaa Farms." Hezbollah actively opposes United Nations Security Council resolution 1559 as it explicitly calls for the disarming of all Lebanese militias. Hezbollah has no intention of disarming, as this would go against their reasons for existence – to act as the terrorist arm of Syria and Iran, and to conduct terrorism against Israel.

Fallout

The likely outcome of Hezbollah’s support of the Syrian occupation is increased isolation, both domestically and internationally. Had Hezbollah supported the Lebanese opposition, its popularity would have increased, and would be viewed as a legitimate player in Lebanese politics. This would have made American efforts to target the organization very difficult. As it now stands, the Lebanese opposition may be willing to turn a blind eye to actions against Hezbollah in order to reduce the influence of this avowed pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian group. Syria’s promise to retreat to the terrorist haven of the Bekaa Valley is not acceptable to either the opposition or the United States, and the forcible removal of Syrian forces may be required.

It will be interesting to see if Hezbollah’s latest move influences the European Union’s discussions on declaring the organization a terrorist entity. As there is near unanimity in Europe for the end of the Syrian occupation, any actions in support of Syria will lessen the support for Hezbollah.

Despite Hezbollah’s strength in Lebanon, it is playing a losing hand, as it has now tied its fortunes to a regime that is under increasing international pressure to end the Lebanese occupation. Hezbollah has set itself up for direct conflict with the United States. In the overall picture of the war, this is a good thing, as Hezbollah is an international terrorist organization with ties to Iran and operational relationships with al Qaeda and other Islamists organizations. Hezbollah has yet to pay the butcher’s bill for its murderous attacks on US Marines and the US Embassy in Beirut, the Khobar towers bombing, support for Sadr's violence in Iraq and a host of other terrorist actions. Hezbollah must be reckoned with before this war is over.

Also Read:

Michael Totten links to a pessimistic piece by Syrian dissident Ammar Abdulamid, explaining the dire situation and roundups of dissients in Syria. Make no mistake, the Syrians see the theat of democracy before them, and are acting to preserve the status quo. But Michael provides a positive warning, "If it really is the beginning of the end of the Assad regime (do keep in mind that it might not be) events on the ground one month from now will be just as astonishing and hard to predict. Ammar Abdulamid may have little hope at this moment, but history is swinging on its hinges again. In a few weeks he may find that he lives in a different and barely recognizable country." A side note: the Pro-Bashir demonstration nets 3,000 attendees. In Damascus, Assad's own capital.

My response to The American Prospect's Garance Franke-Ruta's bashing of Easongate.com, in an article titled Blogged Down, is up at Easongate.