The Long War Journal: The Maghreb?

Written by Bill Roggio on September 30, 2004 4:42 PM to The Long War Journal

Available online at: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2004/09/the_maghreb.php

Is Europe destined to become an Islamic continent? Christopher Caldwell looks at the reaction within the European Union to comments made by the world renowned Islamic scholar Bernard Lewis. Last summer he stated "Europe will be part of the Arabic west, of the Maghreb." Professor Lewis’ remarks have spurred some Eurocrats to question the wisdom of accepting Turkey as a member nation in the European Union. Outgoing European Union competition commissioner Frits Bolkestein argues that allowing more nations into the European Union (both Muslim and Eastern European) will weaken its cohesiveness, and specifically states that admitting Turkey would lead to an Islamic Europe.

Bolkestein was thus addressing a continent-wide discomfiture. His speech was long. It was no rant. Alluding to the E.U.'s aspiration to become a multinational state, he drew listeners' attention to the fate of the most recent European power with that aspiration, the Austro-Hungarian empire just over a century ago. Austrians were culturally confident (Liszt, Richard Strauss, Brahms, Mahler, and Wagner were working in Vienna). They were prosperous and proud. The problem was that there were only 8 million of them, and expanding their country's frontiers brought them face to face with an energetic pan-Slavic movement. Once the Empire absorbed 20 million Slavs, it faced difficult compromises between allowing the new subjects to rule themselves and preserving its own culture. Rather like the E.U., the Empire was past the point of no return before it realized it was going anywhere in particular.

Bolkestein asked what lessons Europeans ought to draw from this history, as they consider welcoming Turkey. He then addressed two specific problems. First, that there was no logical end in sight to European expansion--once the E.U. accepts Turkey, it will have no principled reason to reject the considerably more European countries of Ukraine and Belarus. Europe is thus adding instability that it has neither the financial means nor the cultural solidarity to master. The second problem, Bolkestein warned, is that immigration is turning the E.U. into "an Austro-Hungarian empire on a grand scale." He alluded to certain great cities that will soon be minority-European--two of the most important of which, Amsterdam and Rotterdam, are in his own country--and warned that the (projected) addition of 83 million Muslim Turks would further the Islamization of Europe. It was this part of his speech--in which he referred to Lewis's projections--that made headlines around the world: "Current trends allow only one conclusion," Bolkestein said. "The USA will remain the only superpower. China is becoming an economic giant. Europe is being Islamicized."

To some Islamic experts, it doesn’t seem a question of if, but a question of when Europe will become a Muslim entity. And if so, what kind of Islamic state will it represent: radical or moderate?

Bassam Tibi, a Syrian immigrant who is the most prominent moderate Muslim in Germany, seemed to agree with Lewis's diagnosis, even while rejecting his emphasis. "Either Islam gets Europeanized, or Europe gets Islamized," Tibi wrote in Welt am Sonntag. Having spent much of the past decade arguing for the construction of sensible Islamic institutions in Europe, Tibi seemed to warn that Europe did not have the ability to reject Islam, or the opportunity to steer it. "The problem is not whether the majority of Europeans is Islamic," he added, "but rather which Islam--sharia Islam or Euro-Islam--is to dominate in Europe."

While it is difficult to understand the impact of an Islamic Europe far in the future, it is clear that Europe would be a prize jewel for Radical Islam. Currently Europe possesses an economy with a gross domestic product (GDP) totaling over $10 trillion, compared to GDP totaling $1.4 trillion for the Middle East (a third of which is generated by Turkey). An Islam Europe would inherit Europe’s vast banking, technological and manufacturing capabilities. And while inferior to American military power, Europe’s military capability would be a vast improvement to the military capacity of other Muslim states. Finally, radical Islam would have access to coveted nuclear weapons, the production facilities to manufacture both the weapons and delivery systems, and the knowledge to build them. Both France and the United Kingdom possess an array of nuclear capabilities, including air and sea based delivery platforms capable of hitting targets throughout the world.

Europe should think long and hard before it permits the entry of Turkey into the Union. The influx of Turkey’s 83 million Muslims would cause a fifteen percent increase in the Muslim population of Europe. Turkey's entry into the EU would provide a gateway for other Muslims from the neighboring Islamic nations, as once a person is able to enter the country, he would have the ability to travel anywhere within the European Union without restriction (much like the United States, where illegal immigrants can travel freely once the border is breached). As Turkey borders many Islamic nations, including Iraq, Iran and Syria, there is ample opportunity for infiltration by radical Islamists. Combine this with a lax policy of immigration where illegal entrants are rarely deported, the Islamization of the continent becomes closer to reality.

The European’s potential to become an Islamic nation is another reason why it is crucial for us to fight and win World War IV. The war must be won before Islamofascism can spread and take hold of the European Continent. The European Union’s complacency in defending their traditional institutions as well as their willingness to ignore and even appease radical Islam are obstacles we face in fighting this war. An overtly sympathetic and possibly hostile Europe would pose a serious threat to American security and the future of Western civilization. We can hope Professor Lewis and Bassam Tibi are wrong, but must be prepared to act in case they are right.