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The Virtues of Patience in Najaf

Patience can be a virtue in insurgency warfare. While Sadr and his forces remain in the Imam Ali Shrine, this gives the impression he is in control and also challenges the interim government’s authority. But this can also work to the Coalition’s advantage. Allowing Sadr to remain in place allows us to pick off the Mahdi Army, destroy its morale, expose it for what it is - bunch of opportunist thugs, create an Iraqi force to storm the shrine if needed, and weaken support among the general population. As the American and Iraqi forces complete the cordon around the Najaf’s old city, evidence emerges that the strategy is working.

The fighters of Sadr’s Mahdi Army are demoralized and fleeing the scene of battle. The low morale can bee seen in the highest ranks of the Mahdi Army, as Sadr’s aids cannot even put on their game face at a press conference.

As the pressure mounted, the mood of Mr. Sadr's supporters in Najaf was grim. In a news conference on Tuesday, Ali Smeisim, an aide to Mr. Sadr, said Mr. Sadr's good intentions had been thwarted. In the lobby of the Sea of Najaf Hotel, a building several hundred yards behind the American lines that has been home to Western and Arabic-language journalists, Mr. Smeisim recited a litany of what he called deliberate efforts by Dr. Allawi's government to block Mr. Sadr's peace efforts. Reading from his list, Mr. Smeisim seemed like an unhappy man, one who feared that Mr. Sadr and his militia may not survive.

"This government wants to fool us by killing or arresting Moktada al-Sadr, and they want to insult Sadr's movement," he said. "Now, we are saying it very clearly, that we are ready for negotiations." With that, he stood up, waved away questions and disappeared into Najaf's streets.

American casualties are extraordinarily low considering the fighting is in an urban environment. We have mastered the art of urban warfare; this is truly a revolution in infantry combat as urban warfare historically has higher casualty rates than other combat situation.

Now the insurgents appear weary and overmatched by American tanks, artillery and air power. Some guerrillas have fled, and American commanders here say they believe that they are close to breaking the will of the remaining insurgents. In the past 10 days, the Army battalion fighting in southern Najaf has reported killing several hundred of Mr. Sadr's forces while having only two soldiers seriously wounded and no one killed, said Maj. Tim Karcher, the battalion's operations officer.”

The fighters are not the only one jumping ship, as his top aides have been captured looting relics from the Imam Ali Shrine. This is important as it exposes both the criminal nature of Sadr and his followers, and belies the claim that the Mahdi Army is protecting the mosque from American aggression. Devout Shiites would not plunder the most revered site of Shiite Islam. If knowledge of this spreads in the Shiite community, expect a serious backlash against Sadr and the resistance to an assault on the mosque to fade.

Police on Wednesday arrested several al-Sadr aides with valuables in their possession from the sacred Imam Ali Shrine, which they control, al-Jazaari said. One of al-Sadr's top lieutenants, Sheik Ali Smeisim, was among those arrested, police officials said on condition of anonymity.

As the interim government has stated any assault on the Imam Ali Shrine will be conducted by Iraqis, an Iraqi force dedicated to the task had to be formed. The Iraqi assault team has finally arrived, and it consists of a battalion of Iraqis, specially selected from experienced militia fighters all over the country. In my analysis of the Najaf situation last week, I stated that a likely reason for the delay was gathering an assault force:

Another likely motivation is that they need the time to gather and train the Iraqi assault force to storm the Iman Ali mosque in case the diplomatic route fails. Selecting the proper personnel, properly arming them and creating a mockup of the Imam Ali mosque is a time consuming process that must be done properly in order to reduce the risk of the destruction of the mosque.

American forces positioned in Najaf indicate Iraqi citizens support American actions against Sadr’s militia. This is a view the mainstream media rarely reports, since it does not fit into the Shiites will be inflamed if the Americans storm the mosque narrative of the press.

Two nights ago on a patrol from midnight to 3 A.M., we actually saw Iraqis sitting out on rugs watching and listening to the Coalition aircraft doing their work in the cemetery," 1st Lt. Jeremy T. Sellars — a platoon commander with Battalion Landing Team 1st Battalion, 4th Marine Regiment — told National Review Online on Saturday. "Despite the obvious level of destruction they were inflicting, I watched Iraqis cheer every time the aircraft fired."

In the rural communities just beyond Najaf, the farming families are comforted by the presence of Americans. "The farmers are some of the most supportive of our patrols," said Sellars. "In these areas you can see women who respond to waves, babies and small children being held up to see the Americans. So in the sense of the local populace, I would say they look forward to the end of this conflict, but they understand why it is happening so close to their homes."

First Lt. John B. Johnston of the U.S. Army's 25th Infantry Division has experienced similar interaction with Iraqi civilians. In a Saturday conversation with NRO, he recalled a recent patrol in which his platoon was followed by droves of children. "There were about a hundred of them," he said. "They were chanting 'USA' and shouting great things about President Bush. These kids are the future of Iraq, and they clearly want us there."

The latest reports are that Grand Ayatollah Ali Husseini al-Sistani, Iraq’s most respected Shiite cleric, is in country and heading to Najaf to broker a deal, and has called on his supporters to converge on Najaf. The interim government’s position on this is unclear. As Sadr and Sistani are rivals vying for control of the Shiite masses, it is not apparent if this development will help or hinder the interim government’s ability to resolve this situation on its own terms. Sistani wields great power and commands the respect of Iraq’s Shiites, so his position must be considered by the interim government. The interim government has invested time, energy, resources and enormous political capital in Najaf, and it must not let Sistani or others stand in the way of achieving its goals: the removal of Sadr from the Imam Ali Shrine and the dismantlement of the Mahdi Army – peacefully if possible, by force if necessary. The interim government’s patience in Najaf is paying dividends but it must continue to apply pressure to Sadr to achieve victory.

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