The extremely fluid situation in Najaf appears to be coming to a head. Tuesday, Rebel cleric Muqtada al-Sadr rejected meeting a peace delegation from the national conference in Baghdad, which extended its meeting to deal with the Sadr rebellion as well as work through problems with appointing members to the interim assembly. The Iraqi National Conference members have lost patience with Sadr and decided against sending a further delegation. On Wednesday, the Iraqi interim government issued an ultimatum to Sadr with the following conditions:

- Withdraw from the Imam Ali mosque.
- Disarm the militia.
- Disavow the use of force and enter the political process.

The interim government then issued some tough statements, threatening to use force to dislodge Sadr and his Mahdi army from the mosque. Iraq’s interim Defense Minister Hazim al-Shaalan vowed the rebellion will be brutally suppressed unless Sadr and his followers meet the government's demands. Al-Shaalan also claimed the Iraqis would be the ones that would do the fighting to remove Sadr and company from the mosque.

"They have a chance. In the next few hours they have to surrender themselves and their weapons," Shaalan said in the city after meeting local officials. "We are in the process of completing all our military preparations... We will teach them a lesson they will never forget," he said.

American marines and soldiers have been doing the bulk of the fighting in Najaf, but Shaalan said Iraqi forces had been training to storm the shrine complex and could complete such an operation within hours. “It will be Iraqis who enter the shrine... there will be no American role in this, except giving air protection and protecting some roads leading to the shrine. But the entry (of the shrine) will be 100 percent Iraqi," Shaalan told Al Arabiya, a pan-Arab television channel, in Najaf.

Wednesday afternoon, Sadr issued a statement via one of his deputies that he would abide by the terms of the government’s demands, with some minor unspecified conditions. The Iraqi government is skeptical of Sadr based on his history of failing to abide by his agreements, and has set the condition that he speak publicly he agrees to the government’s terms.

"The Iraqi government has laid down conditions that Moqtada Sadr must promise in a press conference not to resort to violence in the future and that the Mehdi Army is to be dissolved," Minister of State Kassem Daoud said Thursday.

Sadr has backtracked and turned down the government’s demands; he vows "either martyrdom or victory". Prime Minister Allawi has issued a "final call" for Sadr and his militia to abide by the government’s terms, and stated this must be resolved soon.

"This is the final call for them to disarm, vacate the holy shrine, engage in political work and consider the interests of the homeland."

As Iraqi troops prepare the assault in Najaf, American troops appear to be attacking in Sadr City, a section of Baghdad loyal to Sadr that is named after his father.

Analysis

The Iraqi interim government has exercise great patience with Sadr. There are several likely reasons, the main being that it does seek a political solution so as not to alienate a portion of the Shiite population. Another likely motivation is that they need the time to gather and train the Iraqi assault force to storm the Iman Ali mosque in case the diplomatic route fails. Selecting the proper personnel, properly arming them and creating a mockup of the Imam Ali mosque is a time consuming process that must be done properly in order to reduce the risk of the destruction of the mosque.

If the government can force Sadr to disband his militia, publicly renounce violence and enter the political process, where his extreme views appeal to a small minority of Shiites, then this would be a major victory. The interim government can show it is willing to work with those that have grievances and that the democratic process is indeed working. As a disarmed Sadr would be marginalized, his political power would not threaten the government, and the option to bring him up on the charge of murder against him would still exist.

If Sadr has to be forcefully removed from the mosque, the government demonstrates to all armed militias that it will not tolerate insurrections, and has the political will and military capability to remove threats to the legitimacy of the government. The forcible removal of Sadr may have unintended consequences, it is difficult to know the impact of the death or arrest of Sadr will have on the Iraqi Shiite population. As the Iraqi National Conference and many Shiite clerics and tribal leaders have expressed their displeasure with Sadr, the removal of Sadr without the destruction of the Imam Ali Shrine will likely have minimal negative impact. All bets are off if the mosque is destroyed, but one thing will be clear: mosques will no longer be safe havens for terrorists to operate.

A basic principle of governments is that they must maintain a monopoly on force. Without this monopoly, a government falls prey to those that wish to destroy its legitimacy. Iraq has reached the point where it must demonstrate its monopoly on force if attempts to end this via negotiation fail, as it has claimed it will not accept Sadr’s rebellion. The very future of Iraq hinges on the actions of the interim government in the upcoming days and weeks. Whether it ends the standoff peacefully or violently, the rebellion must end on terms the government can accept, or the government will no longer be viable.